— · — games · — plays and — leans across — player props and every game line
Lines from —, pulled —. The number each bet is priced on blends the model with the market: the model gets — of the say on totals, — on spreads and moneylines, and — on props. Lines move: re-check your book's price in each tab's calculator before you bet.
Play: expected profit of 3% or more per dollar (5% for props). Lean: 1–3% (2–5% for props). Stake is a quarter-Kelly share of your bankroll, capped at 3%. Win % is the blended model's chance the bet wins. Click any bet to see why it made the list.
Each game's posted total, the model's projection, and the blended number the bet is priced on.
Over % and EV are at the book's line and price. Notes list the injuries and rest the model priced in, in points. Click a game to see why it's a bet, a lean or a pass.
Different line or price at your book? Enter it to see the model's chances and your expected profit.
Points the home team wins by. Right of the book's mark, the home side covers; left, the away side does.
Lines are the home team's. Model line is what the model would set; fair line is the blend the bet is priced on. Click a game to see why it's a bet, a lean or a pass.
Pick a side and enter its line and price, for example −3.5 at −110.
The market's chance with the book's margin removed, and the blended chance the bet is priced on.
Fair odds are the price at which the bet breaks even on the blended chance. Bet only when the book pays more. Click a game to see why it's a bet, a lean or a pass.
Model is minutes × per-minute production, adjusted for pace, opponent defense and teammates out. Check means the model is 25%+ away from the market, which usually means a role change or news it hasn't seen, so it isn't graded as a bet. Last 10 counts last season's games until this season has ten. Click any prop to see how the projection was built.
Works for any rotation player on tonight's slate, including lines ESPN doesn't carry. Uses the blended number where DraftKings has a line, otherwise the model alone.
Bars are each night's profit at $10 a bet; the line is the running total. Bets are locked at the last price the board showed before tip-off.
Void means the player didn't play, so the bet is refunded. Return is profit divided by money staked on settled bets.
Actual is the final total, the picked team's margin, or the player's stat line.
Walk-forward on 2025-26: each night priced with only earlier games, graded on Play bets at 1 unit each. Line moved its way = when the model disagreed with the opener by a point or more, how often the line moved toward it by tip. Error columns are the average miss against the final score. This replays team ratings and rest only, not injury news.
Running total of Play bets, 1 unit each.
Points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. Roster change is what offseason moves added or cost, folded into the preseason rating.
Effect is the change to the team's projected margin in points, where the player matters enough to move it.
Teams. Offense, defense and pace ratings from every game this season, adjusted for opponent and weighted toward recent games. Before a team has played much, the rating leans on last season's, pulled 30% back toward average and moved by offseason roster changes.
Who plays. Each player is valued by box-score production over a replacement player. The injury report and recent availability move the projection: a newly injured starter costs points, a returning star adds them. Second night of a back-to-back costs a point.
Prices. The book's line and odds, with the margin removed, imply the market's own projection. The bet is priced on a blend of the two. Last season the model predicted where opening lines would move but not where closing lines would miss, so it gets a quarter of the say and its edges are real only when you bet early.
Props. Minutes times per-minute rates for points, rebounds, assists and threes, adjusted for pace, opponent defense and teammates out. Outcomes follow a negative binomial whose spread was measured per stat from last season's games. Props have no backtest because historical prop lines aren't available.
For entertainment and research. No model wins every night; bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, 1-800-GAMBLER is free and confidential.